
A public pension performance report today typically looks like this:
- Public equities: market-priced daily under CFA/GIPS principles.
- Public bonds: market-priced daily.
- Treasury bills: market-priced.
- Then:
- Private equity using quarterly GP valuations.
- Private credit using Level 3 models.
- Real estate using appraisals.
- Infrastructure using internal valuation models.
Those last categories are not market prices. They are manager estimates.
Yet they are blended together into a single “Total Fund Return.”
That creates the appearance that every asset class was measured under the same standard when they clearly were not. Public Pension staff are manipulating these numbers to increase their own compensation. This was found at both CALPERS https://commonsense401kproject.com/2026/05/22/calpers-sets-its-own-excessive-pay-off-the-charts/ and Ohio Teachers https://commonsense401kproject.com/2026/07/13/new-academic-paper-ohio-strs-had-two-performance-numbers-and-used-the-better-one-to-pay-bonuses/
GIPS was built around observable market values
The CFA Institute’s Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS) assume fair values based on market evidence whenever possible.
Private equity is different.
It relies upon:
- GP-generated NAVs
- appraisal smoothing
- Level 3 models
- continuation vehicles
- delayed write-downs
- infrequent valuation dates
Your CFA article from earlier this month emphasized that governance depends on meaningful measurement. Mixing subjective quarterly valuations with continuously priced securities undermines that objective.
Ohio STRS illustrates the problem
Your Ohio STRS article demonstrated one version of this.
The staff effectively maintained two performance numbers:
- one appropriate for compensation;
- another appropriate for public reporting.
The higher number determined bonuses.
If private assets themselves are already valued using optimistic appraisal models, and those values are then blended into total fund returns used for executive compensation, the incentives become even more problematic.
The question trustees should ask is simple:
Were executive bonuses based upon cash returns or estimated valuations?
Those are very different things.
Phalippou’s point is bigger than IRR
Many readers focus on his criticism of IRR.
The deeper point is that cash matters.
Suppose two firms report a 20% IRR.
Firm A returns 1.8x net cash.
Firm B returns 1.3x net cash.
The IRRs look similar.
The investor wealth created is dramatically different.
Your chart illustrates this perfectly.
Apollo:
- 1.39x net multiple
- roughly 6.8% implied annual return
KKR:
- 1.79x
- roughly 12.3%
Those numbers tell investors far more than a headline IRR.
The public pension reporting problem
Imagine a pension reports:
- Public equity: 11%
- Fixed income: 5%
- Private equity: 18%
- Private credit: 13%
Total Fund = 10.9%
But suppose:
- private equity is actually worth 15% less than GP NAV,
- private credit 10% lower,
- real estate 20% lower,
and those values are marked to realistic secondary-market prices.
The reported Total Fund Return immediately changes.
The “alpha” disappears.
The CIO bonus changes.
The funded ratio changes.
Taxpayer contributions change.
None of this requires a single investment to be sold.
It simply requires using market evidence instead of manager estimates.
The false impression of GIPS comparability
This may be the strongest criticism.
Public pensions often imply:
“Our total fund earned 9.8%, measured under professional investment standards.”
That is misleading.
A more accurate disclosure would state:
60% of assets were measured using continuously observable market prices.
40% were measured using manager-supplied or appraisal-based Level 3 estimates that are not directly observable in public markets.
Those are fundamentally different measurements.
A better reporting framework
Every annual report should contain three performance numbers.
1. Traditional Total Fund Return
Current practice.
2. Market-Based Return
Private assets adjusted to estimated secondary-market value.
3. Cash Return
Using actual contributions and distributions.
That third number is closest to what Phalippou argues investors should actually care about.
A new disclosure every pension should provide
Instead of simply reporting:
Private Equity Return: 16.2%
they should disclose:
| Metric | Report |
| Gross IRR | XX% |
| Net IRR | XX% |
| Net Multiple | 1.42x |
| DPI | 0.68x |
| TVPI | 1.42x |
| PME vs Russell 3000 | XX |
| Secondary Market Value | 88% of NAV |
| Estimated Market Annual Return | 7.3% |
That immediately tells trustees whether the impressive-looking IRR actually translated into wealth.
The larger fiduciary issue
The issue is no longer simply whether private equity outperforms.
It is whether public pensions are presenting one performance report that mixes:
- market prices,
- appraisal prices,
- GP estimates,
- Level 3 models,
- IRRs,
- money multiples,
- and GIPS-compliant returns
as though they were directly comparable.
They are not.
If approximately one-third to one-half of a pension’s assets are measured using fundamentally different valuation methodologies, then reporting a single “Total Fund Return” without clearly separating market-based and appraisal-based performance gives trustees and taxpayers a false sense of precision. A genuinely transparent system would distinguish market-priced returns from model-priced returns, report net multiples alongside IRRs, and disclose how much of reported performance depends on manager valuations rather than observable market transactions. That would be far more consistent with both the spirit of GIPS and a fiduciary’s duty of full and fair disclosure.
Public Pensions Should Report What Their Alternative Investments Are Actually Worth
Public pension funds routinely claim that their private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative investments are worth almost exactly what the private managers say they are worth. Yet when investors try to sell those same investments, the market frequently offers substantially less.
That gap is not merely an academic accounting dispute. It affects reported investment returns, staff bonuses, actuarial funding ratios, required taxpayer contributions, asset-allocation decisions, and the credibility of the entire public-pension system.
Public pensions should therefore disclose two values for every alternative-investment portfolio:
- The general partner’s reported net asset value.
- An independently estimated secondary-market value reflecting what the pension could reasonably receive in a current arm’s-length sale.
For many portfolios, that second number could be 10% to 30% below reported NAV. For distressed, older, venture-capital, or real-estate funds, the discount can be even larger.
The Market Already Provides a Price
The traditional defense is that private investments cannot be marked to market because there is no market.
That argument is increasingly untenable. The private-assets secondary market is now a large, institutional marketplace. Lazard estimated that secondary transaction volume reached approximately $233 billion in 2025, up 53% from 2024. The existence of hundreds of billions of dollars of annual transactions means that public pensions can obtain market indications, competitive bids, broker estimates, and portfolio-level pricing ranges even when individual holdings do not trade daily.
Jefferies’ review of 2025 secondary pricing provides particularly useful evidence:
| Alternative investment | Average secondary price in 2025 | Implied discount from reported NAV |
| Buyout private equity | 92% of NAV | 8% |
| Private credit | 91% of NAV | 9% |
| Venture and growth | 78% of NAV | 22% |
| Private real estate | 70% of NAV | 30% |
These are broad averages, not prices that apply mechanically to every fund. But they demonstrate why reporting all alternatives at 100 cents on the manager-reported dollar can materially overstate their realizable value.
Academic research reached a similar conclusion long before the recent liquidity crunch. A major study of secondary transactions found an average discount of 13.8% to NAV, with discounts varying by fund type, age, and market conditions.
The attached June 2026 paper by Eric Tymoigne gives the economic explanation. Private assets are commonly valued through Level 3 models rather than observable market prices. Tymoigne notes that private-credit secondary purchasers may buy LP interests at roughly a 15% discount to the reported NAV, while concerns over refinancing, embedded leverage, continuation vehicles, and conflicts of interest make manager valuations especially vulnerable to manipulation or delay.
The 10%–30% Range Is Not Hypothetical
Recent transactions and trading prices make the discount visible.
Private credit: 15% to 30% discounts
In July 2026, Cox Capital Partners offered to purchase shares in non-traded private-credit BDCs managed by Apollo, Ares, and BlackRock’s HPS at discounts of approximately 15% to 30% from stated NAV. These were actual bids for investments whose managers were still publishing substantially higher values.
Earlier in 2026, publicly traded BDCs were selling at a median price of approximately 74% of forward NAV, implying a market discount of roughly 26%. The public market was effectively saying that internally calculated private-loan values were worth only about three-quarters of the stated amount.
A pension fund may argue that a listed BDC is not identical to a closed-end institutional private-credit partnership. That is true. Listed BDC prices can contain additional discounts for management fees, governance, volatility, and retail sentiment. But a 26% market discount cannot responsibly be ignored while an unlisted portfolio of similar loans continues to be reported at close to par.
Private equity: roughly 8% for stronger buyout funds, more than 20% for venture
Jefferies reported that buyout funds traded around 92% of NAV in 2025, while venture and growth funds traded around 78%. That suggests an approximately 8% haircut for comparatively marketable buyout portfolios and a 22% haircut for venture and growth portfolios.
Averages also conceal wide dispersion. Older “zombie” funds, weak managers, concentrated portfolios, unfunded commitments, and assets requiring additional capital may sell well below average.
Real estate: approximately 30%, sometimes much more
Jefferies reported average private-real-estate secondary pricing of around 70% of NAV in 2025—a 30% discount.
Specialized industry reporting has noted that discounts on some private-real-estate assets can exceed 50% of reported NAV. That does not mean every real-estate fund should immediately be cut in half. It does mean that a pension reporting an office, retail, or distressed real-estate portfolio at the manager’s appraisal value should disclose what the portfolio might actually bring in the secondary market.
New York City’s $5 Billion Sale Shows Both the Market and the Secrecy
In May 2025, the New York City pension systems completed a roughly $5 billion private-equity secondary sale involving more than 125 fund interests managed by 74 firms. Blackstone’s Strategic Partners acquired more than 95% of the portfolio, and the sale attracted interest from more than 80 potential bidders.
This transaction proves that even extremely large pension portfolios can be competitively priced.
But New York City declined to disclose the pricing. The public was told the size of the transaction, the buyer, and the strategic rationale—but not the relationship between:
- the funds’ carrying value before the sale;
- the bids received;
- the final sales proceeds;
- transaction and advisory costs;
- and the gain or loss relative to reported NAV.
That missing number may be the most important number in the transaction.
If a public pension reports $5.5 billion of private-equity NAV and sells it for $5 billion, taxpayers should be told that the portfolio was worth approximately 91 cents on the reported dollar. If the carrying value was $5 billion and it sold for $5 billion, the valuation deserves credit. Secrecy prevents either conclusion.
Public Pension Accounting Currently Permits Too Much Deference to Manager NAV
GASB Statement No. 72 generally requires government investments to be measured at fair value. However, where an investment lacks a readily determinable fair value, governments may use the NAV per share—or its equivalent—reported by the investment fund under specified circumstances.
That accounting accommodation has effectively become an escape hatch.
The GP chooses the model, assumptions, comparable companies, discount rates, expected exits, projected earnings, credit-loss expectations, and sometimes the timing of write-downs. The pension then reports the resulting number as “fair value,” even though the investment may sell for significantly less.
The attached Tymoigne paper reports that Level 3 assets represented approximately 42% of pension-fund assets in the IMF sample in 2022, up from 31% in 2016, with private debt accounting for roughly half of the increase. It warns that Level 3 valuation creates conflicts because an inflated value can help a manager attract financing, maintain fee revenue, avoid covenant problems, and sustain refinancing. https://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/the-retailization-of-private-markets-and-the-rise-of-ponzi-finance/
This is particularly troubling because fees are commonly charged on NAV. The manager who determines the value may also be paid more when that value is higher.
“Hold-to-Maturity” Is Not a Defense
Pension officials often respond that they intend to hold the investment until maturity, so a secondary-market discount is irrelevant.
That argument fails for several reasons.
First, the current sale price is still important information. A homeowner may not plan to sell a house, but that does not justify reporting it at an unsupported appraisal while comparable houses sell for 30% less.
Second, public pensions do sell alternative assets. New York City’s $5 billion transaction is an obvious example. Other pensions sell to reduce manager counts, rebalance allocations, obtain liquidity, avoid future capital calls, or exit deteriorating investments. The secondary value therefore represents a real economic alternative, not a theoretical liquidation.
Third, “holding to maturity” does not guarantee recovery of NAV. Private-equity funds must sell portfolio companies. Private-credit borrowers must repay or refinance. Real-estate funds must refinance or sell properties. Continuation vehicles frequently extend the holding period without producing a genuine third-party realization.
Fourth, a delayed write-down can distort interim performance and compensation even if the final loss is eventually recognized. Staff may receive bonuses based on artificial interim gains that disappear several years later.
Secondary Prices Are Imperfect—but More Informative Than Secret Models Alone
A secondary-market bid is not necessarily the single correct fair value. It can incorporate:
- illiquidity;
- buyer-required returns;
- transaction expenses;
- adverse selection;
- future management fees;
- unfunded commitments;
- portfolio concentration;
- stale GP valuations;
- and the seller’s urgency.
But these are not irrelevant distortions. They are economic characteristics of the investment.
Illiquidity is part of the cost of owning an illiquid asset. It should not disappear from public accounting merely because the pension prefers not to sell.
A responsible policy would not automatically replace every GP NAV with the lowest unsolicited bid. Instead, pensions should report a range:
Manager-reported NAV: $10.0 billion
Independent secondary-market estimate: $7.8 billion to $9.0 billion
Estimated liquidity and valuation adjustment: $1.0 billion to $2.2 billion
That tells trustees and taxpayers far more than simply reporting $10 billion.
The Recommended Public-Pension Disclosure Standard
Every public pension should publish quarterly, by asset class and manager:
| Required disclosure | Purpose |
| GP-reported NAV | Shows the manager’s official valuation |
| Date of underlying valuation | Exposes three- to six-month reporting lags |
| Cash-adjusted NAV | Corrects for capital calls and distributions after the valuation date |
| Independent secondary estimate | Shows current realizable market value |
| Estimated bid range | Acknowledges uncertainty rather than pretending to false precision |
| Discount or premium to NAV | Makes the valuation gap visible |
| Valuation methodology | Identifies bids, broker quotes, comparable trades, public-market equivalents, or models |
| Unfunded commitments | Captures future cash obligations assumed by a buyer |
| Fund age and remaining term | Identifies zombie and extension risk |
| PIK income and non-cash earnings | Exposes returns that have not produced cash |
| Subscription lines and NAV loans | Shows leverage omitted from simple allocation figures |
| GP-led or affiliate transactions | Highlights conflicted price validation |
| Actual sale price after disposition | Permits comparison of earlier estimates with realizations |
| Fees calculated on NAV | Quantifies whether overstated values increased manager compensation |
Pensions should also publish three separate performance records:
- Performance using manager-reported NAV.
- Performance using independently adjusted market values.
- Cash-only performance based on contributions and distributions.
This would expose whether reported “alpha” resulted from actual cash gains or from appraisal assumptions.
A Practical Mark-to-Market Policy
Secondary pricing should be gathered through an independent valuation agent or competitive process, not from the pension’s private-market consultant if that consultant also recommends the managers.
At minimum:
- Large portfolios should be independently priced quarterly.
- Each major partnership should receive a marketability assessment annually.
- At least 20% to 25% of the portfolio should be subjected to broker bids or formal indications each year.
- Funds experiencing write-downs, extensions, PIK growth, covenant amendments, NAV borrowing, or weak distributions should be reviewed more frequently.
- Actual sales should be compared retrospectively with the pension’s earlier valuations.
- Material differences should be reported publicly to trustees.
A standard haircut schedule could serve as a preliminary risk disclosure where direct bids are unavailable—not as a substitute for valuation, but as a warning indicator. Based on current broad secondary-market evidence, a starting sensitivity analysis might include:
| Asset category | Illustrative secondary-value sensitivity |
| High-quality recent buyout funds | 90%–95% of NAV |
| Average buyout portfolio | 85%–92% |
| Mature or weak buyout funds | 70%–85% |
| Private credit | 80%–92% |
| Stressed private credit or redemption-constrained BDCs | 70%–85% |
| Venture and growth equity | 65%–80% |
| Core real estate | 80%–95% |
| Value-add or opportunistic real estate | 60%–80% |
| Troubled office or legacy real estate | potentially below 60% |
These should be presented as market-value sensitivity ranges, not universal marks. The point is to stop treating 100% of GP-reported NAV as unquestionable fact.
The Biggest Objection Is Political, Not Technical
The industry will say that disclosure would create volatility. But the volatility already exists in the underlying businesses, loans, and properties. Current accounting merely delays its recognition.
They will say that reporting secondary values would make private assets look riskier than public assets. That is because private assets are riskier and less liquid than quarterly statements suggest.
They will say discounts merely reflect a buyer’s desired return. But every market price reflects the return required by buyers.
They will say public disclosure could weaken negotiating leverage. Aggregate disclosure by asset class, vintage, and manager can protect truly confidential portfolio-company information while still exposing the economic gap between NAV and market value.
And they will warn that transparent marks could reduce pension funding ratios. A funding ratio that depends on avoiding current market evidence is not a stronger funding ratio. It is simply a less honest one.
The Core Fiduciary Principle
Public pensions do not have to liquidate their alternative portfolios. They do have to tell workers, retirees, trustees, legislators, and taxpayers what those portfolios are reasonably worth.
The appropriate standard is not:
“What number did the private-equity manager place on the quarterly statement?”
It is:
“What would an informed, independent buyer pay today, and how does that compare with the value being used to calculate returns, fees, bonuses, and pension funding?”
The secondary market is now large enough to provide that evidence. Depending on the asset class, recent prices indicate discounts ranging from roughly 8% for stronger buyout portfolios to 20%–30% for venture, private credit under liquidity pressure, and real estate. In weaker or distressed portfolios, losses can be considerably larger.
Public pension trustees who refuse even to obtain and publish those estimates are not avoiding volatility. They are avoiding information.









